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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent also-rans rising in unison. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still